Archive for February, 2011

Time Running Out for Albert Pujols and Cardinals

February 13, 2011

Albert Pujols reportedly rejected the Cardinals latest contract offer on Sunday, setting up the Armageddon scenario that has been talked about this off season.

Tuesday is reported to be the deadline for a new contract to be signed, or Pujols has stated he will walk at the end of the 2011 season.

The rejection of today’s offer would seem to make inking a deal by Tuesday a long-shot.

Multiple reports state Pujols is demanding a 10-year deal in the $300 million range. It is widely speculated that Pujols wants a salary similar to that of Alex Rodriguez . The Yankees deal with Rodriguez can reach a $30 million per season average if he reaches certain performance thresholds.

A side-by-side comparison between Pujols and Rodriguez would suggest he has been a more productive hitter with less protection in the lineup the past 10 years. So it is easy to understand where Pujols would want to be compensated at a rate near that of Rodriguez.

But is it realistic for Pujols to expect a deal that exceeds the Rodriguez contract?

That is a tough question.  Imagine you produced better than another person, but were told by your employer you would not meet or exceed that person’s salary. That’s a tough pill to swallow.

Of course we all realize guys like Rodriguez and Pujols are not nine-to-five workers like most of us. They are supremely talented, ultra-competitive individuals creating tens of millions of dollars of value for their owners in a multi-billion dollar industry.

The big issue I see is this: How many teams can realistically pay one player $30 million per season and hope to be a contender year in and year out?

Both the Yankees and  Red Sox would be the most obvious deep-pocketed suitors for Pujols. But with rosters full of huge contracts you have to think even they have their limits.

Sure there are other large market teams like the Cubs, Phillies, Dodgers, Mets and Angels that will be mentioned if Pujols hits the free agent market. But a closer look casts doubt as to how many of those teams would be serious bidders for Pujols.

The Cubs are still licking their wounds for several bad contracts they have handed out the past few years, including Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano each earning upward of $20 million per season.

The Phillies broke the bank the past couple years with the addition of Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cliff Lee. Oh, and by the way, they have a first baseman named Ryan Howard signed to a long-term deal paying $25 million per season.

The Dodgers would likely be out with the continuing divorce saga and alleged cash flow problems of their owners, the McCourts.

The Mets would probably be out as they will likely be dealing with the fallout of their owners involvement with Bernie Madoff for the foreseeable future.

Rumors persist that they are seeking investors in the hopes of raising $250 million. And you can be sure the $250 million is not being raised to sign Albert Pujols.

The Angels would seem to be a logical candidate for Pujols. Especially after Angels owner, Arte Moreno said after last season he would spend what it takes to contend. He then proceeded to let big time free agents like Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre slip through his fingers.

Multiple sources reported Moreno balked at the asking price for Crawford and Beltre ultimately losing out on them both thus taking huge heat from the Angels fan base.

Moreno’s solution to the heat was to take on the bloated contract of Vernon Wells from the Blue Jays.

If Moreno would not pay Adrian Beltre $96 million over 6-years, it’s doubtful he is going to pay Albert Pujols $300 million over 10 years

The biggest question facing the Cardinals or other potential suitors after the 2011 season is how much will a 40-year-old Pujols be worth in year nine or 10 of a $300 million deal?

An under-performing 40-year-old first baseman earning $30 million per season would be the biggest albatross in major league history.

Sunday February 13, 2011 Day in Review

February 13, 2011

Carlos Marmol Contract Extension with Cubs Appears Imminent

http://blogs.suntimes.com/cubs/2011

Rickie Weeks Arbitration Hearing Scheduled for Thursday the 17th

http://twitter.com/#!/Ken_Rosenth

Billy Wagner Confirms Retirement

http://www.mynewsadvance.com/index.p

Erick Aybar Cleared for Spring Training After Arthroscopic Surgery on Left Knee Last October

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports

Jered Weaver Has No Hard Feelings After Losing in Arbitration Case

http://www.ocregister.com/sports/

Chad Durbin May Sign with Mariners

http://mlbbuzz.yardbarker.com/blo

David Aardsma Two Weeks from Throwing

http://gregjohns.mlblogs.com/ar

Jose Bautista and Toronto Blue Jays Negotiation Deadline Looming

February 13, 2011

Every baseball fan on the planet probably knows by now that Albert Pujols says he will test the free-agent market after the 2011 season if a new contract is not signed by the start of spring training.

Jose Bautista has also imposed a deadline for a new contract. Bautista says he will not negotiate after his arbitration hearing on Monday. Bautista’s self imposed deadline is probably not on the radar of most fans outside of Toronto.

He is asking for $10.5 million for 2011 and the Blue Jays have countered with $7.6 million. If he can come close to duplicating his 2010 season, you could add the figures together and he would be a bargain at $18.1 million.

A long-term deal is rumored to be in the works, but with the deadline looming, nothing appears imminent.

Bautista is an amazing story. He toiled for six years, putting up numbers that would only be noticed by hardcore fantasy baseball owners.

Then seemingly out of nowhere, he hits 54 home runs in 2010. This from a guy whose previous career high was 16 in 2006. Even more amazing was his career total of 59 in 1754 at bats. He nearly doubled it in 569 at bats in 2010.

There is no rational explanation of how a 29-year-old player with 59 career homers can nearly double that total in one season. The closest example I can think of is Brady Anderson hitting 50 in 1996. The only reason I remember this fact is that I drafted Anderson in a fantasy league that season, hoping he would steal 20 bases.

After his 50 homer explosion, Anderson never reached even 25 homers again, hitting only 88 more in his career in 2,649 at bats over six seasons.

I am sure many people have studied and projected statistics for Bautista for 2011. I honestly don’t see how anyone can project Bautista for 2011 with any degree of confidence.

My gut feeling based on his age and career numbers is there no way he will come close to ever matching his production of 2010.

Maybe it’s just the memories of Brady Anderson in my mind?

Maybe it’s that Vernon Wells was jettisoned to the Angels, thus costing Bautista valuable protection in the lineup?

Maybe it’s hard to fathom a player that never showed signs of greatness exploding for 54 homers at age 29?

Or maybe it’s the fact that I cannot think of any other example of a player having such huge single season spike so far along in his career backing it up the following season?

I know I for one will be watching Bautista during the 2011 season with great anticipation.

Bryce Harper Reportedly Moving to Centerfield

February 12, 2011

According to Bill Ladson of MLB.com Washington Nationals phenom Bryce Harper is expected to play center field the bulk of the time in the minors.

With Jayson Werth signed to a long-term deal and slated to start in right field this is not a major surprise.

Harper primarily played catcher before being drafted.  It is widely speculated that his switch from catcher to outfielder will get him to the majors faster.

Harper is the most hyped minor league position player since Alex Rodriguez. It will be very interesting to see how he performs in his first full season in professional baseball.

Latest on Albert Pujols

February 12, 2011

Cardinals General Manager John Mozeliak refused to comment on the Pujols negotiations on Saturday.

The Cardinals and Pujols seem no closer to a deal than they were at the end of the 2010 season.

They are reportedly leery of going beyond 7-years when Pujols is widely thought to be asking for a 10-year deal.

Both sides have said all along negotiations would be held in private. The long speculated deadline of the start of spring training is rapidly approaching with no resolution in sight.

Pujols is unquestionably the best hitter of the past 10-years and in baseball’s current economic landscape Pujols is undoubtedly worth the rumored $30 million per season asking price.

But the question facing the Cardinals or potential suitors after the 2011 season is how much will a 40 year old Pujols be worth in year 9 or 10?

An underperforming 40 year first baseman earning $30 million per season would be the biggest albatross in major league history.

http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/

Carlos Marmol and Cubs Reportedly Closing in on Multi-Year Deal

February 12, 2011

Marmol is arbitration eligible this year and is asking for $5.65 million and the Cubs have countered with $4.1 million.

Marmol had a very good season in 2010 posting 38 saves in 43 opportunities. He had an unbelievable 138 strikeouts in 77 2/3 innings. He has electric stuff and should become one of the best closers in the league if he can continue where he left off in 2011.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/articl

Afternoon Update 2/11/11

February 11, 2011

Buster Olney Reports No Progress in Albert Pujols Negotiations

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/status/36120992627

Matt Holiday Reportedly Willing to Defer Salary to Help Keep Albert Pujols in St. Louis

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/dailypitch/p

Yankees Considered Getting Carl Pavano and Grant Balfour Via Sign and Trade with Diamondbacks

http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/hardball/up_petti

Johan Santana Starts Throwing, No Timetable for Return

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/m

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/news/s

Dustin Pedroia Says His Foot is Fine and he is Ready for Spring Training

http://browniepoints.mlblogs.com/archives/2

Rickie Weeks and Brewers Still Hope to Agree to Contract Extension

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/archives/201

Edinson Volquez Reportedly Rejected Four-Year Extension with Reds

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/02/vol

Jeremy Guthrie Avoids Arbitration with Orioles, Agrees to 1-Year $5.75 Million Deal

http://baltimore.orioles.mlb.com/news/article

Afternoon Update for 2/10/11

February 10, 2011

Josh Hamilton Signs Two-Year Deal with Rangers, Avoids Arbitration

http://www.dallasnews.com/sports/texas-rangers/he

I think this is a very good move for the Rangers locking up Hamilton for the next 2-years for a very reasonable $12 million per season.

Are Twins Willing to trade Francisco Liriano to Yankees?

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/115676604.html

Mariners Unlikely for Destination for Michael Young.

http://twitter.com/#!/jonmorosi/status/35743135665631232

Young and the Rangers seem destined for an unhappy marriage in 2011 as more and more teams fall off the list of possible trade destinations.

Jered Weaver Loses Salary Arbitration Hearing to Angels

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/02/angels-pitcher-

I was wrong on this one. I really thought Weaver had posted numbers that would convince the arbiter his $8.8 million request was justified.

Orlando Cabrera to Sign with Indians

http://twitter.com/#!/SI_JonHeyman/status/35776047739834368

Stephen Strasburg Begins Throwing

http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2011-02-10/str

Shaun Marcum and Brewers Avoid Salary Arbitration

February 9, 2011

The Brewer Beat Blog is reporting Shaun Marcum and the Brewers avoided arbitration agreeing to a 1-year $3.95 deal.

http://brewersbeat.mlblogs.com/archives/2011/0

In my opinion this a bargain for the Brewers considering the numbers Marcum put in a very tough American League East in 2008 and 2010.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011 Day in Review

February 9, 2011

John Heyman Tweets there is virtually no chance of Albert Pujols reaching a deal with the Cardinals by the reported deadline of February 16th.

http://twitter.com/#!/SI_JonHeyman/status/3

Wednesday Michael Young Notes

Yankees Reportedly Not Interested in Young

http://twitter.com/#!/Buster_ESPN/st

Phillies Reportedly Not Interested in Young

http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/mlb/news/st

Justin Morneau Begins Hitting and Fielding Drills

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/

SportsIllustrated.com is reporting Joba Chamberlain will start 2011 in the Yankees bullpen.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/baseba

Sergio Mitre will likely be the fifth starter on the Yankees depth chart going into Spring Training. It is safe to say Mitre will little margin for error in the starting rotation. If he falters early the Chamberlain to the starting rotation rumors are sure to start.

Ross Ohlendorf Wins Salary Arbitration Hearing Against Pirates

http://communityvoices.sites.post-gazette.com/ind